Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs — But He Just Imposed New Ones. Here Is What It Means for Crypto.
The U.S. Supreme Court just did something historic: it struck down President Trump's tariff regime in a decisive 6-3 ruling. The court said no president has ever invoked the statute to impose tariffs "of this magnitude and scope" and that Trump's actions extended "beyond the President's legitimate reach."
Bitcoin's reaction? A textbook fake-out. BTC knee-jerked 2% higher, briefly kissing $68,000 — then immediately sold off back below $67,000. If you've been watching crypto markets lately, you know this playbook by heart: any pop gets faded within minutes.
The Ruling
The Supreme Court's 6-3 decision is constitutionally significant. The majority opinion argued that the breadth of tariff authority Trump claimed had no historical precedent and exceeded executive power. This wasn't a close call — it was a firm constitutional smackdown.
But here's the thing: it might not matter.
Trump's "Backup Plan"
Within hours of the ruling, Trump called the decision a "disgrace" and announced a new 10% global tariff on all countries, claiming all tariffs would remain in place despite the Supreme Court's ruling. He says he has a "backup plan" — reportedly using an alternative legal framework that Goldman Sachs already anticipated wouldn't be blocked by the court decision.
So the constitutional crisis we were worried about? It's here. The executive branch is openly defying the judiciary on trade policy, and markets are trying to figure out what that means.
The Cantor Fitzgerald Angle
Here's where it gets truly wild. Reports emerged today that Cantor Fitzgerald — now run by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's sons — had been buying rights to potential tariff refunds at 20-30 cents on the dollar. A company that paid $10 million in tariffs might sell its refund rights for $2-3 million.
Then the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs, entitling holders of those refund claims to full government refunds. The potential windfall for Cantor? Billions.
Whether this was savvy trading or something that smells worse is a question that will dominate DC for weeks. When the Commerce Secretary's family firm is profiting from a Supreme Court ruling on the President's trade policy, the optics are — to put it mildly — not great.
Why BTC Can't Hold a Bid
The tariff drama is unfolding against a brutal macro backdrop. GDP growth came in at just 1.4% for Q4 2025, while core PCE inflation printed at 3% year-over-year — hotter than expected. The full-year GDP growth of 2.2% is the slowest since the COVID year of 2020.
Translation: stagflation. The economy is slowing while prices keep climbing. That's the worst possible environment for the Fed, which is now firmly stuck on pause. No rate cuts are coming anytime soon.
For crypto, this explains the persistent pattern of every rally getting sold. Risk assets need either growth or liquidity, and right now they have neither. Bitcoin can't break out when every macro data point reinforces the "higher for longer" rates narrative.
What Happens Next
Three things to watch:
- Constitutional showdown: Trump defying a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs creates massive legal uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news.
- The Cantor investigation: Congress will almost certainly look into the refund-rights trading. If it escalates, it adds another layer of political chaos to markets already drowning in it.
- Bitcoin's range: BTC is trapped between the $65K support and $70K resistance. A break either way will be violent, and the catalyst is more likely macro than crypto-native at this point.
The bottom line: the Supreme Court did its job, but the executive branch doesn't seem to care. We're in uncharted constitutional territory, and crypto — as usual — is caught in the crossfire between macro forces that are bigger than any single ruling.
Buckle up. This isn't over.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
